The Golden Arches and Grand Promises
The McDonald's Impact Summit in Washington D.C. on a chilly Monday, November 17, 2025, wasn’t your average corporate gathering. Sure, you had the usual suspects: franchise owners, major suppliers, the distinct aroma of corporate-branded coffee (and maybe a faint whiff of stale fry oil from the catering). But this year, the keynote speaker was former President Donald Trump, and the event was described as "bipartisan," featuring figures like NY Gov. Kathy Hochul and former ambassador Rahm Emanuel. The underlying message, however, was clear: affordability. Both Democrats and Republicans have been trying to own that narrative, with some success in recent off-year elections. But Trump, fresh off a 2024 campaign that leaned heavily on economic accessibility, was there to stake his claim.
His speech wasn't just a pep talk for burger barons; it was a full-throttle economic policy address, delivered with his signature bravado. The stated goal? To "end" the affordability crisis, a crisis he squarely laid at the feet of the Biden administration. He thanked the McDonald's leadership—Chairman and CEO Chris Kemchinski, McDonald's USA President Joe Erlinger—and gave a shout-out to the International Franchise Association, recognizing individuals like Carlos Matteos Sr., a Cuban immigrant who built a nearly 60-store empire from a single Virginia McDonald's. It was a classic American success story, woven into a political narrative. Trump even claimed to be the "very first former McDonald's fry cook ever to become President of the United States" (for a fleeting 30 minutes, apparently). The stage was set, the audience primed, and the claims began to flow like soft-serve from a machine.
Deconstructing the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (And Other Figures)
Trump's economic blueprint, as laid out under the golden arches, centered on what he called his "One Big Beautiful Bill" (sometimes "great big beautiful bill"). This legislative marvel, he asserted, would eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security for seniors. Furthermore, he promised permanent expensing for business owners, allowing immediate write-offs, and an expanded 10-year full expensing. For the franchisees in the room, the promise of expanded tax relief and a permanent pass-through deduction, coupled with the virtual elimination of the estate tax (or "death tax" as he termed it) for small businesses, must have sounded like a symphony.
Now, as an analyst, I find this particular "bill" intriguing. Details on its specific mechanisms or how it navigates the complex federal budget process remain, shall we say, scarce. When we talk about "eliminating taxes on Social Security for seniors," are we referring to the taxation of benefits, or some other aspect? The specifics here are critical, and without them, it's difficult to run any meaningful projections. It reminds me of a black box model in finance; you see the proposed output, but the internal workings are entirely opaque.
Beyond tax cuts, Trump focused heavily on deregulation. He reiterated his administration's policy of requiring 10 old regulations to be eliminated for every new one, claiming this slashed over $1 trillion in regulations, reducing the effective burden on franchisees by over 37%. He also promised to lift water restrictions on household appliances and rescind "Biden energy regulations" on kitchen equipment. Crucially for the franchise model, he announced the termination of Obama's "joint employer rule," which he dubbed a "mortal threat." These are concrete policy positions, designed to appeal directly to the business owners in the room.
Then came the numbers—a deluge of them. He claimed 1.9 million more American-born workers employed than when he took office, with hourly wages rising at the fastest pace in 60 years. Over 600,000 Americans, he said, were lifted off food stamps in 9 months. The stock market, he asserted, hit an all-time high 48 times in 9 months, with 401ks reaching their peak just two days prior. He also claimed his administration "stopped inflation in the tracks since January," citing core inflation as the lowest in about 8 years and specific price drops: breakfast items down 14% in 6 months, bread, dairy, and eggs (down 86% since March).
This is where the data analyst in me starts to raise an eyebrow. While specific price drops can occur due to various market dynamics (e.g., avian flu recovery for egg prices), attributing "stopping inflation in the tracks since January" and these precise percentage drops solely to current administration policies requires a significant leap of faith, or at least a highly specific methodological framework that wasn't presented. The consumer price index, for instance, rose 3 percent over the 12 months ending in September—the same annual inflation rate Trump inherited when he took office. To be more exact, the rate of change in inflation is what typically gets measured, and declaring it "stopped" is a bold claim, especially when viewed against broader economic indices. My analysis suggests that cherry-picking specific data points, however compelling they sound, doesn't paint a complete picture of economic reality. It’s like looking at a single stock’s daily gain and declaring the entire market bullish, ignoring the wider index.
He projected $17 trillion invested in the U.S. in 9 months, potentially reaching $20-21 trillion in a year, largely due to tariffs. He also claimed 100% of all new jobs created under his administration were in the private sector. These are substantial figures, and I'd be very curious to see the underlying data and calculation methodologies for these investment numbers. Investment figures of that magnitude in such a short timeframe, especially "due to tariffs," would represent an unprecedented economic shift that is not widely reported by independent financial institutions. It’s a classic example of what I'd call "fuzzy math" – numbers so large and round they almost lose their meaning without rigorous substantiation. He even claimed to have changed the name of the "Gulf of Mexico" to the "Gulf of America," which, while amusing, doesn't exactly instill confidence in the factual precision of other, more critical assertions.
He concluded with an announcement that the United Nations had approved a "Board of Peace" which he would chair, comprising himself and "leaders of important nations." And, of course, a call to action for attendees: "go on offense, engage and advocate for our system."
A Reality Check on the Menu
Trump's speech at the McDonald's Impact Summit was a masterclass in weaving a compelling narrative of economic prosperity and affordability, perfectly tailored to his audience. He painted a vivid picture of a future where regulations vanish, taxes shrink, and the economy roars, all under his guiding hand. But when you strip away the rhetoric and look for the verifiable data points, what you often find are broad claims, aspirational figures, and a distinct lack of granular, independently verifiable methodology. The promises of a "One Big Beautiful Bill" and the precise inflation figures, while appealing, function more as rhetorical devices than concrete policy details. It’s a skillfully constructed economic mirage, designed to resonate emotionally rather than withstand rigorous analytical scrutiny. The real question isn't just what was said, but how those numbers were derived, and whether they hold up under the cold light of day.